🌾 Expert: Wheat Prices in 2025 Expected to Rise Amid Decreased Supply  

🔹 In 2025, a significant increase in wheat prices is anticipated due to reduced supply, both in Russia and the European Union.

🔹 Possible "black swan" events and other unpredictable factors may influence price dynamics, but the main driver of growth remains the decrease in supply.

🔹 Global wheat market prices are already showing a positive trend, confirming expert predictions of further price increases.

Wheat prices on the global market in 2025 are expected to be higher than current levels due to a projected decrease in supply, according to Ekaterina Zakharova, Senior Analyst at the Center for Price Indices (CPI). She shared this forecast during the "Friday with the Center for Price Indices" event.

 

Zakharova noted that the reduction in wheat supply is not only due to a lower harvest forecast in Russia but also because of a decrease in production within the European Union, which is one of the world's major exporters. "The European Union is also reducing production, adding pressure on the global supply," the analyst emphasized.

 

However, Zakharova cautioned that other unforeseen factors could impact price dynamics, potentially altering the current forecasts. "So-called 'black swan' events, unpredictable occurrences, could have a significant effect on the market. Additionally, much will depend on the ability of importing countries to cope with rising prices," she added. Nevertheless, the main factor driving price increases remains the reduced supply for now.

 

Wheat Market Price Growth

 

On September 13, 2024, the wheat market closed with a noticeable increase in prices. At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), December futures for soft winter wheat reached $218.53 per ton. In Kansas City, December contracts for hard winter wheat (KCBT) rose to $220.46 per ton, and at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX), December futures for hard spring wheat grew to $233.50 per ton.

 

The wheat complex showed double-digit growth on Friday. December futures for soft wheat in Chicago added 16 ¼ cents for the day, closing the week with an overall gain of 27 ¾ cents. In Kansas City, December futures rose by 13 ¾ cents for the day, ending the week with a 22 ½ cent increase. In Minneapolis, December contracts for hard spring wheat increased by 13 ¾ cents, with a weekly gain of 21 ¾ cents.

 

Growth in prices was also observed in the European market. At the Paris exchange MATIF, December futures for milling wheat closed at €225.00 per ton, equivalent to $249.17 per ton.

 

Thus, the wheat market continues to show a positive trend, driven by expectations of further supply reductions, which enhances the prospects for price growth in 2025.