Decrease in Rapeseed and Sunflower Production: What to Expect from the 2024/25 Season  

In the September USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for the 2024/25 marketing year, the global oilseed production forecast was adjusted. The expected volume is reduced by 3.12 million tons to 687.42 million tons, which is still higher than the previous season's total (657.82 million tons). The main reasons for the decrease are the reduced production of sunflower and rapeseed, although this is partially offset by an increase in soybean yields.

 

The forecast for sunflower production is cut by 2 million tons, and for rapeseed by 1.27 million tons. However, thanks to a 0.47 million ton increase in soybean production, the overall decline was less significant. In particular, global rapeseed production for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 87.56 million tons. A substantial reduction is forecasted for the European Union, where the production estimate has been lowered by 1.25 million tons to 17.65 million tons. Meanwhile, projections for key rapeseed-producing countries, such as Ukraine (3.7 million tons), Canada (20 million tons), Australia (5.5 million tons), and Russia (5.1 million tons), remain unchanged. Interestingly, the EU’s forecast for oilseed imports has increased by 0.3 million tons to 6.6 million tons, significantly exceeding last season’s figure of 5.5 million tons.

 

The global rapeseed export forecast was also revised down. It was reduced by 200,000 tons to 17.28 million tons. Canada will face a 450,000-ton reduction in exports, bringing the total to 7 million tons, while Australia, on the other hand, will increase its exports by 250,000 tons to 4.75 million tons. Ukraine will maintain its forecasted rapeseed export volume at 3.3 million tons, while the country's internal processing capacities are estimated at 400,000 tons.

 

Global sunflower production is also down according to the report — to 50.5 million tons. The largest adjustments concern Ukraine, where the forecast was reduced by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons. In the European Union, production is expected to fall by 650,000 tons to 9.5 million tons, and in Kazakhstan — by 150,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. The forecast for Russia remains stable at 16 million tons.

 

The global sunflower processing forecast was reduced by 1.8 million tons, bringing the total to 46.9 million tons. The most significant reductions will occur in Ukraine — by 1 million tons to 12.15 million tons, and in the European Union — by 450,000 tons to 8.6 million tons.

 

These changes highlight the volatility of the oilseed market, which could affect supplies and prices worldwide. These adjustments point to the need for heightened attention to the dynamics of the oilseed markets, especially in key exporting and consuming countries like the EU, Ukraine, Canada, and Australia.