Wheat imports from Russia to Kazakhstan increased amid a decline in March exports

Exports of Kazakh wheat (soft and hard) in March decreased by 4.6% compared to February, totaling 809.6 thousand tons (excluding EAEU countries). At the same time, this figure is 18% higher than in March 2025. These data were reported by Yevgeny Karabanov, Head of the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.

According to him, the decline in shipments in March was due to seasonal factors, reduced profitability of export operations caused by a decrease in VAT refunds to 20%, as well as a significant strengthening of the tenge against major currencies.

Despite this, thanks to high shipment rates in previous months, exports in the current marketing year (MY) remain at record levels. Over seven months (September–March), export volumes reached 5.9762 million tons, which is 12% higher than the same period of the previous season.

The main export destinations continue to be Central Asian countries — Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan. Shipments to these countries amounted to 4.5609 million tons compared to 3.9151 million tons a year earlier, with their share in total exports increasing to 76.3% (73.6% a year earlier). Uzbekistan alone accounted for 59.5% (47.8%).

In the current season, exports increased to several countries: shipments to Uzbekistan rose by 26%, to Afghanistan more than doubled, to Turkey increased 27-fold, to Georgia by 16%, to the United Kingdom doubled, to Belgium by 1.6 times, and to Portugal by 2.85 times.

At the same time, exports declined in a number of destinations. Shipments to Turkmenistan decreased nearly threefold to 15.1 thousand tons, to Tajikistan by 6.7% (841.6 thousand tons), to Azerbaijan by 2.5 times (191.4 thousand tons), to Latvia by 1.9 times (20.1 thousand tons), to Italy by 24% (219.2 thousand tons), and to Norway by 2.35 times (3.4 thousand tons). Exports to Morocco ceased entirely (from 94.6 thousand tons to zero).

Yevgeny Karabanov noted that the sharp decline in wheat exports to China — by 14.2 times to 9.4 thousand tons — was offset by a significant increase in feed flour shipments, which more than doubled, rising by 1.1613 million tons compared to the same period of the previous marketing year.

At the same time, imports of Russian wheat into Kazakhstan, based on phytosanitary certificates issued from September to March of the 2025/26 MY, amounted to 1.2576 million tons. In March, imports increased by nearly 1.65 times compared to February, reaching 382.3 thousand tons.

Following the seven-month results, the Grain Union revised its forecast for wheat imports into Kazakhstan for the 2025/26 MY upward by 300 thousand tons to 1.7 million tons. The export forecast for all Kazakh wheat (soft and hard) was also increased by 200 thousand tons to 8 million tons.