15.09.2025, 12:34
Quality Takes the Lead: Kazakhstan Announces New Grain Price Forecast
Rainy weather lowered grain quality and reshaped price trends for wheat and oilseeds
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan has presented its price guidelines for the peak harvest season. According to Evgeniy Karabanov, head of the Union’s Analytical Committee, prolonged rains in August have negatively affected grain quality, creating a significant price gap between different classes of wheat. Farmers should prepare for a wide price spread not only for wheat but also for barley, flax, and sunflower seeds.
This season, Kazakhstan’s wheat market will be characterized by sharp price differences directly tied to quality. Cool and rainy weather during the grain-filling stage has led to an increased share of 4th and 5th class wheat. As a result, the price gap between food-grade 3rd class wheat and feed-grade 4th class wheat may reach 8,000–10,000 tenge.
Grain Union price forecasts:
• Wheat, 3rd class (25% gluten): 85,000 – 90,000 tenge/ton
• Wheat, 3rd class (23% gluten): 80,000 – 85,000 tenge/ton
• Wheat, 4th class: 70,000 – 75,000 tenge/ton
• Wheat, 5th class: 65,000 – 70,000 tenge/ton
Karabanov emphasized that, as in the previous season, the price of 3rd class wheat will vary significantly depending on gluten content.
Other crops
• Barley: After a summer price surge, the market expects a correction. Buyers in Iran and China are unwilling to pay inflated prices, while Russia’s good harvest and declining prices are adding pressure. Forecast range: 72,000 – 76,000 tenge/ton.
• Flax seeds: Domestic prices are expected to settle at 205,000 – 220,000 tenge/ton, with the final level depending on export destinations (Europe or China).
• Sunflower seeds: The mass harvest is yet to begin, but several factors are already shaping the market. Both global and domestic sunflower oil prices are higher than last year. In Russia, sunflower seed prices have stabilized at 34,000–37,000 rubles/ton (excl. VAT). Based on these indicators, Kazakhstan is expected to see prices in the range of 170,000 – 175,000 tenge/ton.
Outlook
The expert noted that all forecasts take into account the challenges of a harvest season marked by heavy rains. These weather conditions may lead to further adjustments in grain and oilseed prices in the near future.
