Wheat Harvest Forecast by IGC: Kazakhstan to See Record Yields in 2024

Kazakhstan is poised for an impressive increase in wheat production this agricultural season, as projected by the International Grains Council (IGC), with an expected yield of 16 million tons. This substantial rise from last year's 12.1 million tons opens avenues for increased export potential. The nation anticipates that its wheat exports for the 2024/25 season will climb to 10.3 million tons, up by 1.5 million tons from the previous season.

This substantial yield also allows Kazakhstan to reduce its import volumes, which are forecasted to decrease from 2 million tons this season to 1.2 million tons, indicating a boost in domestic self-sufficiency and reduced dependency on external grain supplies.

Conversely, other key wheat producers such as Russia face a contrasting scenario. Russia's wheat yield is forecasted at 81.8 million tons, significantly down from last year's 91 million tons. Consequently, its wheat export volume could fall to 43.2 million tons, markedly lower than last year's record of 56.1 million tons. A similar reduction is observed in Ukraine and the European Union, with expected yields of 25.4 million tons and 124.8 million tons, respectively.

However, not all regions are experiencing production declines. The USA, Canada, Australia, and Argentina are showing robust growth in yield. The USA is expected to increase its wheat production to 53.9 million tons, Canada to 34.9 million tons, Australia to 30.1 million tons, and Argentina to 18.4 million tons. Major wheat importers—China and India—are also anticipated to boost their production to 140 million tons and 112.9 million tons, respectively.

Overall, the IGC estimates that global grain production in the 2024/25 season will reach a new high, increasing by 16 million tons to 799.1 million tons. Wheat production will contribute significantly to this growth, with an increase of 5 million tons. Production of corn, sorghum, oats, and barley will also see increases.

Despite the expected rise in harvests, global grain stocks are projected to remain at last year's levels due to limited initial reserves. An increase in consumption is expected to further reduce end-of-season grain stocks by 1%, reaching a ten-year low of 581 million tons. As yields rise in key markets, global grain trade is expected to decrease by 35 million tons, to 419 million tons annually.