20.08.2026, 23:39
Russian Wheat Exports Could Fall to 2.2 Million Tonnes in August
The decline in shipments is linked to disruptions at Black Sea terminals and limited freight availability
Russian wheat shipments to international markets could decline significantly in August amid continuing disruptions at key Black Sea ports. Analysts at SovEcon presented this forecast.
Experts lowered their estimate for wheat exports in August by 1 million tonnes to 2.2 million tonnes. For comparison, Russia exported 4.5 million tonnes in August last year, while the five-year average stands at 5 million tonnes.
The last time Russia exported a lower volume of wheat in August was in 2010. At that time, exports amounted to just 1.6 million tonnes. Following a severe drought, the Russian government imposed a grain export ban starting on August 15 of that year.
At the same time, SovEcon’s current forecast assumes that at least some of the Black Sea terminals will resume operations by the end of August. If the disruptions persist, wheat exports could fall below the projected 2.2 million tonnes, which may require a further downward revision of the estimate.
At present, grain terminals in Novorossiysk remain closed for vessel loading. Terminals in Taman are also not operating. In addition, several more bulk carriers have been hit by drones in recent days, while freight availability remains severely limited.
The current export situation is having an increasing impact on Russia’s domestic grain market. According to analysts, food wheat prices have fallen by approximately 2,500 rubles per tonne, or about 18%, since June, reaching 11,025 rubles per tonne.
Large volumes of grain from the new harvest continue to enter the domestic market, while export demand remains significantly constrained. At the same time, domestic buyers are delaying purchases in anticipation of further declines in grain prices.
SovEcon does not expect effective measures capable of significantly supporting domestic demand to emerge. Meanwhile, the reduced availability of Russian wheat on the global market is becoming an increasingly noticeable factor supporting international prices.
According to analysts, continued disruptions to exports through the Black Sea could support global wheat prices while simultaneously increasing pressure on Russia’s domestic market.
Current shipment rates also indicate the likelihood of a further downward revision to the forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 season.
