06.05.2026, 01:07
US Department of Agriculture Forecasts Decline in Wheat Production in Kazakhstan
The expected reduction in harvest volumes could lead to a significant decline in grain exports from Kazakhstan
The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a noticeable decline in wheat and barley production in Kazakhstan. According to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA (FAS), weather conditions and market factors in 2026 will result in lower harvest volumes compared to the near-record figures of the previous season. At the same time, production levels are expected to remain within the average range, World-grain.com reports.
According to the forecast, wheat production in the current season will total around 14 million tonnes. For comparison, FAS estimated Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest at 18 million tonnes in 2025 and 18.57 million tonnes in 2024.
The wheat planting area is expected to remain nearly unchanged from last year at 11.5 million hectares. However, this is 1 million hectares less than two seasons ago. FAS notes that the reduction is linked to the expansion of oilseed crop acreage, which remains more profitable for farmers.
Against the backdrop of declining production, wheat exports in the 2026–2027 marketing year are projected to decrease to 7.5 million tonnes, compared to 11 million tonnes in the previous season. FAS believes that producers and traders will prioritize export shipments while increasing imports of Russian wheat for flour milling and subsequent re-export.
At the same time, large carryover wheat stocks are expected to help bridge the gap between supply and demand.
Barley production in the current season is forecast at 3.1 million tonnes, compared to an estimated 3.6 million tonnes a year earlier. Meanwhile, barley planting areas may increase to 2.4 million hectares due to expectations of strong market demand.
FAS stated that after record wheat harvests over the past two years, which put pressure on wheat prices, farmers intend to sow more barley this spring in hopes of achieving higher profitability.
Barley exports in 2026–2027 are expected to decline by 200,000 tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes. At the same time, strong domestic demand for barley is anticipated.
