Global Grain Market: What's New and What Should Farmers in Kazakhstan Expect? (FAO Report Analysis, November 2025)

 

In November 2025, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published its regular Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. This document is more than just dry figures. For farmers in Kazakhstan, it is a crucial source of information that helps them understand the direction of the global market and make the right decisions for the next season. In this article, we analyze the key findings of the FAO report, translate them into plain language, and examine what they mean for our country's agricultural producers.

 

The Global Picture: Record Harvest and Growing Stocks

The main news from the report is that the world expects a record grain harvest in 2025, reaching nearly 3 billion tonnes. This is 4.4% more than last year. Production of all major crops is growing, but corn stands out in particular. What does this mean for us?

On one hand, a large harvest is good. It indicates market stability and predictability. On the other hand, when there is an abundance of a commodity on the market, prices generally tend to decrease. This is an important signal for everyone planning sales.

Along with production, global grain stocks are also growing. They are set to reach a record 916 million tonnes. This creates a "safety cushion" for the world but also increases downward pressure on prices in the short term.

The graph above clearly shows how production (blue bars) has consistently exceeded consumption (orange bars) in recent years, which is leading to the growth in stocks (green line).

 

Focus on Wheat: Kazakhstan's Position in the Global Market

For Kazakhstan, as one of the key global exporters, the wheat market is of primary importance. The news here is also quite interesting. Global wheat production in 2025/26 is forecast to grow, reaching 819 million tonnes.

Even more importantly for us, global trade in wheat is set to grow. The FAO forecasts an increase of 5.1%, with Asia being the main driver of this growth. Countries in the Asian region are projected to increase imports by 15.6 million tonnes. This opens up excellent export opportunities for Kazakh farmers and traders, especially given our geographical location.

However, it is worth remembering the high level of competition. Other major players, including our neighbor Russia, are also increasing production and exports.

 

Corn and Other Crops: Diversification and New Opportunities

Although wheat remains the "queen of the fields" for us, the FAO report strongly hints at the growing role of coarse grains, primarily corn. They account for more than half (54%) of all global grain production.

Global demand for corn is growing for several reasons:

 * Animal Feed: Brazil and the US are directing more corn towards livestock feed.

 * Aquaculture: The rapidly growing fish farming sector in Asia requires imported feed.

 * Industrial Use: The use of corn for producing biofuels and other industrial products is increasing.

Thus, the global grain market in 2025-2026 promises to be stable, with abundant supply and growing stocks. For farmers in Kazakhstan, this means a period of moderate prices but with good opportunities for wheat exports, especially to Asia. At the same time, global trends indicate the need to increase efficiency and consider diversification opportunities, for example, by entering the growing market for coarse grains. Careful analysis of global trends and smart planning will help Kazakhstan's agricultural producers operate successfully in the new market conditions.

 

Sources

FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/