Kazakhstan's Wheat and Flour Export Forecast Raised to 14.3 Million Tons

The Grain Union of Kazakhstan has revised upward its forecast for the combined exports of wheat, wheat flour, and feed flour in grain equivalent for the 2025/26 marketing year. The new forecast stands at 14.3 million tons, which is 710 thousand tons higher than the previous estimate.

The announcement was made by Yevgeny Karabanov, Head of the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, in his Telegram channel.

According to him, Kazakhstan exported approximately 12 million tons of wheat and flour in grain equivalent during the first nine months of the current season. This represents a 19% increase compared to the same period of the previous marketing year.

At the same time, combined exports in May totaled 855 thousand tons, down 30% from April.

Imports of Kazakhstan's grain products increased in several countries. Uzbekistan raised its purchases by 36%, Tajikistan by 4%, Afghanistan by 1.5 times, Turkmenistan by 41.7%, and Kyrgyzstan by 46%.

Exports to China increased by 1.68 times, mainly due to a sharp rise in feed flour imports. Shipments to Belgium grew by 1.88 times, driven by higher exports of durum wheat.

Russia increased its purchases of Kazakh wheat and wheat flour by 60%. Exports to Iran surged by 74.5 times following a significant increase in wheat shipments.

Exports to the United Kingdom doubled, while shipments to the Netherlands and Algeria increased by 1.7 times. Turkey expanded imports by 27 times, primarily due to higher purchases of durum wheat.

In addition, Tunisia and France appeared among Kazakhstan's importers during the current season. No exports to these countries were recorded during the first nine months of the previous marketing year.

At the same time, exports declined in several markets.

Shipments to Azerbaijan fell by 3.08 times due to lower wheat imports. The reasons cited include stronger competition from Russian wheat and a reduction in transport cost subsidies.

Exports to Georgia declined by 43.5%, also due to reduced wheat imports and increased competition from Russian grain.

Norway cut imports of Kazakh wheat by 12%. Exports of durum wheat to Italy fell by 32%, while shipments to Latvia declined by 28.7%.

No exports were recorded to Morocco, Egypt, or Vietnam during the current marketing year. During the same period a year earlier, exports to these countries totaled 158.6 thousand tons, 5 thousand tons, and 3.5 thousand tons, respectively.

One of the key factors behind the upward revision of the export forecast was the record volume of feed flour exports.

In May of the 2025/26 marketing year, Kazakhstan exported 352 thousand tons of feed flour. This was nearly 41% higher than in April and marked the highest monthly feed flour export volume on record.

During the first nine months of the season, cumulative feed flour exports reached a record 2.756 million tons. This is 1.88 times higher than during the same period of the previous marketing year and 24% above the total exports recorded for the entire 2024/25 marketing year.

More than 99% of Kazakhstan's feed flour exports were supplied to the Chinese market.