Wheat on the Edge: High Yields Fail to Offset Poor Quality in North Kazakhstan

 

Despite challenging weather conditions, most agricultural enterprises in the North Kazakhstan region are nearing the completion of the harvest campaign. Yet, instead of optimism, there is a sense of cautious pessimism among farmers. Although wheat yields are high, grain quality is causing serious concern.

At first glance, production figures appear respectable. In some districts, yields range between 22–25 centners per hectare. For example, farms in the Akzhar district report up to 28 c/ha, with some achieving as high as 30 c/ha.

Overall, preliminary forecasts suggest an average yield of 15.7–17.7 c/ha across the region, with the highest figures expected in Kyzylzhar district.

At the start of the harvest, official data indicated an average yield of 16.5 c/ha. With 2.136 million hectares sown under grain, the total harvest is projected at about 3.5 million tons.

However, behind these numbers lies another reality: lower test weight and gluten levels, and high impurity and moisture content. In some farms where harvesting extended into late September, humidity levels were particularly high.

In the Aiyrtau district, farmers report that even visually healthy wheat often ended up classified as 4th or 5th grade.
In the Gabit Musrepov district, late sowing and a lack of warm days during the grain-filling phase worsened the situation.
“There wasn’t enough sun — and everything went downhill,” one farmer summarized.

Average gluten levels in these areas stand between 17–19%, the lowest acceptable threshold for bread-making wheat.

In districts hit by heavy rainfall, machinery literally got stuck in the fields. Akzhar, Tayynsha, and Magzhan Zhumabayev districts were among the hardest hit. Harvesting took place under constant risk of shattering, high losses, and extreme pressure on machinery.

After a dry summer, the weather turned unstable by autumn, leaving some farms unable to complete harvesting on time.

Under such conditions, the grain market has been volatile. According to farmers, purchase prices at the start of the season were discouraging — 70–75 thousand KZT per ton (including VAT) for standard wheat, and 75–80 thousand for 4th grade.

Some deals reached 90 thousand KZT, but only for small and inconsistent batches.

The main issue is the limited supply of high-quality wheat. Therefore, for the grain that does meet standards, a price premium is expected. According to producers, the real market price will likely form around these scarce high-grade batches.

Farmers agree on one point: the 2025 campaign was stressful, though not disastrous. Yields were acceptable — in some areas even better than expected. But quality is weak, and the market remains uncertain.