Transport Subsidies to Support Kazakhstan’s Grain Exports in the 2025/26 Season

 

Kazakhstan’s state program for subsidizing transportation costs will play a decisive role in maintaining high export volumes of grain and grain products in the new 2025/26 agricultural season. This forecast was presented by Assel Karasheva, Head of Marketing and Planning at Astyk Trans JSC, during the Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent 2025.

According to the expert, thanks to effective state subsidies last season, Kazakhstan successfully marketed its record harvest and entered new sales markets. This support measure reduces logistics costs for producers, making their products more competitive in the global arena.

Stability Amid Lower Harvest

In the 2024/25 season, Kazakhstan achieved impressive results, exporting 11.4 million tons of grains and oilseeds — 49% more than in the previous period. Domestic transportation also grew by 20%.

Despite the expected reduction in harvest volumes in the new season, exports are projected to remain strong at around 10.4 million tons. Rail transport will bear the main load, with Astyk Trans estimating shipments of about 9.2 million tons, ensuring wagon fleet utilization close to last year’s record level.

Forecast by Key Crops

• Wheat: With a projected harvest of 15.5 million tons (down from 18.6 million tons last season), exports may reach about 7 million tons, slightly lower than the 7.4 million tons of 2024/25.

• Processed Products: Wheat flour exports in grain equivalent are expected to remain stable at 2.6 million tons. Feed flour exports will also remain significant, at around 2 million tons.

• Barley: Exports are forecast to fall from 2.1 million tons to 1.7 million tons due to lower production volumes.

The extension of the transport subsidy program has become a strategic tool for Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector. It helps offset potential declines in harvests while reinforcing the country’s reputation as a reliable and stable food supplier to Central Asia and beyond.