USDA Forecasts Sharp Increase in China’s Grain Imports Due to Quality Issues

The Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) has revised its forecast for China’s grain imports for the current marketing year, projecting a significant increase in purchases of key crops. According to updated data from the Global Agricultural Information Network report, despite a record domestic harvest, China will be forced to become more active on global markets due to quality problems affecting its own grain production.

U.S. analysts expect China’s corn imports in the 2025/26 season to rise more than fourfold to 8 million tonnes, compared with 1.8 million tonnes last year. Wheat imports are also forecast to increase to 6 million tonnes, while sorghum imports are projected at 7.6 million tonnes, both figures significantly exceeding those of the previous season. Barley imports are expected to remain at a consistently high level of around 10.5 million tonnes.

Experts cite quality imbalances as the primary driver behind this trend. Although Chinese farmers harvested a historically high grain crop totaling 715 million tonnes, adverse weather conditions during the harvest period negatively affected grain quality. A substantial portion of the harvested corn and wheat proved unsuitable for food use and for high-quality feed production.

Under these circumstances, Chinese processors are compelled to purchase high-quality imported grain to blend with domestic supplies in order to bring the final product up to required standards. In addition, the growth in sorghum and barley imports is driven by strong demand from the livestock sector, where these crops are used as a more affordable and higher-quality alternative to expensive domestically produced feed grain. As a result, current market conditions in China are creating additional opportunities for exporting countries capable of supplying grain that meets the required quality specifications.