Uzbekistan Pulls Ahead: A New Balance of Power in Afghanistan’s Sunflower Oil Market

In the first half of 2025, Uzbekistan made a decisive leap, surpassing Russia and Kazakhstan in sunflower oil exports to Afghanistan. This shift in trade flows marks a new chapter in the competition among the region’s three key suppliers. Data presented by independent analyst Marina Sidak at the international “Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent 2025” point to sweeping changes. Over the first six months of the year, Uzbekistan shipped roughly 17.7 thousand tonnes of sunflower oil to the Afghan market, followed by Kazakhstan with 15.8 thousand tonnes and Russia with 13 thousand tonnes.

These figures are particularly notable against last year’s results. In 2024, the undisputed leader was the Russian Federation, which sent 49.5 thousand tonnes to Afghanistan. Uzbekistan ranked second with about 26 thousand tonnes, while Kazakhstan placed third with 22.5 thousand tonnes. As the expert emphasized, Afghanistan’s sunflower oil market is highly volatile, and shipment volumes can vary significantly from year to year depending on market conditions.

On prices, all three countries pursued a similar strategy in the first half of 2025: the average price per tonne for shipments to Afghanistan hovered around $600. A year earlier, pricing policies differed markedly: Russia offered the most affordable oil (an average of $511 per tonne), while Kazakh product averaged $523 and Uzbek product $533 per tonne.
Uzbekistan’s current success raises questions about the future distribution of market shares in this strategically important arena. Whether the country can maintain its lead through the end of the year—and how its main competitors, Russia and Kazakhstan, will respond—remains to be seen. What is already clear, however, is that the battle for the Afghan consumer has entered a new and even more active phase.