Grain Union: Feed Meal Exports from Kazakhstan Could Reach 2.5 Million Tonnes

The Grain Union of Kazakhstan has revised its forecast for feed meal exports for the current season upward, increasing the expected volume from 1.55 to 1.85 million tonnes. This growth, primarily driven by surging demand from China, may require Kazakh producers to source additional grain volumes, which could potentially be imported from the border regions of Russia.

Yevgeny Karabanov, Head of the Analytics Department at the Grain Union, shared an expert assessment that in the next marketing year, provided a favorable trade policy from the PRC is maintained, feed meal exports from Kazakhstan could reach an impressive 2.5 million tonnes.

Record Shipments and the China Factor
The current season is already demonstrating unprecedented growth rates. According to the Grain Union, a new monthly shipment record was set in May at 264.6 thousand tonnes, which is 20% higher than in April. Since the beginning of the current marketing year, the total export volume has reached 1,472.1 thousand tonnes. This figure is almost 1.9 times higher than the volume for the entire 2023/24 marketing year, highlighting the market's rapid dynamics.

The key driver of this growth is China, which accounts for 98% of all export shipments. As Yevgeny Karabanov explained, feed meal is an essential raw material for China's industry of ready-made feeds for animals and poultry. The significant geographical distance of China's main grain-producing regions from its northwestern territories, particularly the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, makes importing from neighboring Kazakhstan economically viable and logistically advantageous.

An additional incentive for Chinese importers is the duty-free import of feed meal, which favorably distinguishes it from wheat, the import of which is subject to a 65% tariff outside of state quotas.

An Investment Boom in Processing
Both wheat and barley of various classes are used for the production of feed meal. The main criteria for the raw material are protein content and increased ash content, which prevents its use for food purposes. A standard recipe typically involves about 80% wheat and 20% barley and other grains.

Against the backdrop of growing demand, Kazakhstan is experiencing a real boom in the construction of feed meal production facilities. According to Yevgeny Karabanov, these plants are characterized by rapid construction times, technological simplicity, and relatively low capital intensity.

"We are observing that two to three new enterprises are opening in the country every month," the expert noted.

Notably, it is not only Kazakh entrepreneurs who are actively investing in this sector. Chinese companies are also confidently entering the feed meal production market, investing their own funds in creating new capacities within Kazakhstan. This indicates a long-term interest from Chinese business in stable raw material supplies and the strengthening of trade ties between the two countries.