Expert Names Main Source of Pressure on Kazakhstan’s Grain Market

Kazakhstan should not expect a significant influx of Russian grain that could face export restrictions through Novorossiysk following the attack on port terminals. Transportation along this route involves a long and expensive logistics chain. A more significant impact on Kazakhstan’s domestic market is coming from grain supplied from Russia’s Siberian regions. Zeynolla Abdumanapov, Chairman of the Board of the National Association of Exporters KazGrain, wrote about this on his Facebook page.

According to him, Russia’s Omsk Region increased wheat exports fivefold in the first half of 2026, reaching 324,000 tonnes. Of this volume, 245,000 tonnes were shipped to Kazakhstan.

The expert noted that the Russian region’s proximity to the Kazakh market provides a short transportation distance, while the lower production cost of grain has a direct impact on the domestic market. In his view, this factor is more important for Kazakhstan’s internal market than developments at distant Russian ports.

Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan introduced a partial ban on wheat imports for a period of six months starting July 27. The restrictions apply to shipments by rail, road and water transport, including imports from Eurasian Economic Union member states and, primarily, from Russia.

Exceptions have been made for licensed grain elevators, flour mills and the Food Corporation. According to Zeynolla Abdumanapov, one of the main objectives of the measures is to limit the inflow of cheaper grain into the domestic market, including supplies from Siberia.

The expert also outlined two possible routes for the further movement of Russian grain. The first involves transit through Kazakhstan toward Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The advantages of this route include a short transportation distance and established railway infrastructure. However, following the introduction of the restrictions, such shipments are now subject to tighter controls.

The second option is the Caspian route Astrakhan–Turkmenbashi–Iran, which allows cargo to bypass Kazakhstan altogether. According to the head of KazGrain, the share of this route in Russia’s total exports has recently increased to 15–18%, and the corridor is now regarded as a strategic direction.

After crossing the Caspian Sea, cargo can move through Iranian ports to markets in Central Asia and the Middle East.

At the same time, the Caspian route faces infrastructure constraints. In particular, waiting times for ferry crossings can range from one day to one week. In addition, the combined throughput capacity of the Caspian ports of Aktau and Kuryk is estimated at approximately 21–22 million tonnes per year. This capacity applies to all types of cargo, not only grain.

According to Zeynolla Abdumanapov, completely redirecting significant volumes of Russian grain around Kazakhstan would be difficult due to the limited capacity of alternative logistics routes.

As a result, in his view, some grain shipments will continue to seek transportation opportunities through Kazakhstan.