15.05.2026, 00:18
Drought in the United States Could Lead to a Record Low Wheat Harvest
Production of hard red winter wheat may decline by 25%
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects wheat production in the country during the 2026/27 season to total 1.56 billion bushels. For comparison, production in the 2025/26 season was estimated at 1.985 billion bushels. As a result, the projected volume would become the lowest in the past 54 years.
The decline in harvest is linked to severe drought affecting the U.S. wheat belt. According to USDA estimates, production of hard red winter wheat will decrease by 25% compared to last year.
Additional pressure on the agricultural sector comes from rising production costs. Higher fuel and fertilizer prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly increased grain production costs. The situation is further complicated by trade restrictions and tariff disputes initiated by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Earlier, the USDA reported that only 28% of winter wheat crops in the United States are rated in good or excellent condition. This is the lowest rating for this stage of the growing season in the past four years.
